Indicator · Q3 2026
Dubai Market Balance Index
Dubai reads 44 on the Prop971 Market Balance Index in Q3 2026, 6 points below neutral. Weighted, transaction momentum and supply pressure pull it down most, while market breadth and rental momentum hold it up. Abu Dhabi reads 59 on the same six components (provisional).
Charts
Prop971 Market Balance Index components for Dubai, Q3 2026: index 44
Data
Index components, Dubai, Q3 2026
| Component | Weight | Input | What the input is | Scale | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction momentum | 20% | -35.8% | Residential sales, Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025 | -30% = 0, 0% = 50, +30% = 100 | 0 |
| Price momentum | 15% | -2.0% | Median AED/sq ft, Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025 | -20% = 0, 0% = 50, +20% = 100 | 45 |
| Rental momentum | 15% | +5.0% | Median apartment rent, 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months | -15% = 0, 0% = 50, +15% = 100 | 67 |
| Supply pressure | 20% | 2.35x | Estimated remaining registered units / sales in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 | 4.0x = 0, 2.0x = 50, 0 = 100 | 41 |
| Market breadth | 15% | +45.4% | Share of sales outside the 10 largest areas, Q3 2026 | 25.2% = 0, 40.2% (2019 to 2025 average) = 50, 55.2% = 100 | 67 |
| Financing environment | 15% | +1.3pp | Indicative gross apartment yield minus 3-month EIBOR (4.32% on 30 Sep 2026) | -1pp = 0, +1pp = 50, +3pp = 100 | 57 |
| Prop971 Market Balance Index | 100% | Weighted average of the six scores | 0-100, 50 = neutral | 43.6 |
Definition and method
Prop971 Market Balance Index v1.0: weighted average of six component scores (0 to 100), each a linear scale of a published input with the bounds stated. Higher = firmer market conditions on balance; 50 = neutral.
First reading of a quarterly series that starts with Q3 2026. Scales and weights are fixed across issues so readings compare over time.
Sources
- Dubai Land Department (DLD) open transaction data, Prop971 analysis
- DLD project register and Ejari leases
- Central Bank of the UAE (EIBOR)
Cite
Cite the Q3 2026 edition
Prop971 Research (2026), Real Estate Market Balance: Dubai and Abu Dhabi, Q3 2026. Dubai Market Balance Index. https://www.prop971.com/research/q3-2026/dubai-market-balance-index
