Quarterly report · Issue 01 · Q3 2026
Real Estate Market Balance: Dubai and Abu Dhabi, Q3 2026
Six findings from the registered data for the third quarter of 2026: transactions, prices, rents, supply, breadth and financing in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, scored on the Prop971 Market Balance Index.
Prop971 Market Balance Index · Q3 2026
Key findings
Prices held while activity normalised from a record year.
The median registered price was AED 1,685 per sq ft, -2.0% on Q3 2025 and +76% above Q3 2019. 32,385 homes changed hands, -35.8% on Q3 2025 but more than in 21 of the 30 earlier quarters since 2019.
Rental income held up while new-lease rents eased.
Registered apartment rents rose 5.0% over the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In Q3 2026 renewals carried a median of AED 64,000, +6.7% on Q1, while new contracts eased to AED 73,000 (-2.7%), with the all-contract medians of the largest established apartment districts lower than in Q1. Indicative gross yields are 7.3% for studios and 5.7% for one-bedroom apartments against a 3-month EIBOR of 4.32%.
The market widened at the entry level.
43% of sales were priced under AED 1m (28% a year earlier) and 73% were off-plan. Dubai South alone recorded 5,148 sales. The choice of new, lower-ticket homes for first-time buyers and smaller investors is wider than a year ago.
Supply is large, and most of it is in projects less than a quarter built.
An estimated 368,502 units remain to be built in 1,559 active projects, 2.35 times the past year’s sales. 78% of them sit in projects less than a quarter built; only 6,896 are in projects more than three-quarters complete.
Demand fundamentals kept growing in both emirates.
Dubai added 72,294 residents in the quarter, taking the population to 4.81 million by 7 October. Abu Dhabi’s residential sales value rose 31.1% to AED 27.4bn on 7.8% fewer deals; ADREC’s Abu Dhabi City sale price index was +17.3% y/y in August 2026.
Market balance: Dubai 44, Abu Dhabi 59 (provisional).
On the 0-100 Prop971 scale Dubai reads 6 points below neutral: market breadth (67), rental momentum (67) and financing environment (57) hold it up, transaction momentum (0), supply pressure (41) and price momentum (45) pull it down. Abu Dhabi reads firmer on price and rental momentum.
Exhibits
Prop971 Market Balance Index components for Dubai, Q3 2026: index 44
Quarterly residential sales in Dubai, 2019 to Q3 2026
Median registered price per sq ft in Dubai by quarter, 2019 to Q3 2026
Dubai supply maturity ladder: estimated remaining units by construction stage
Indicative gross apartment yield by bedroom count against the 3-month EIBOR
Quarterly residential sales in Abu Dhabi, 2019 to Q3 2026
Median price per sq ft for Abu Dhabi apartments and villas by quarter, 2019 to Q3 2026
